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Kolshi runs pari-mutuel prediction markets on how crypto traders perform on fomo and pump.fun. You back a trader, or a side, and everyone who backed the winner splits the pot. Nobody sets the odds: they are each side's share of the pot.

Bets are in ETH on Robinhood Chain. Markets settle on-chain, and the contract holds every bet until it pays out or refunds.

Opens

Betting starts the moment the market is created. The opening snapshot of every trader is taken right away.

Measurement starts

At the first full hour (UTC) after the market opens. Everything from here to the end counts.

Bets close

12 hours before the end. This stops last-minute bets made when the result is all but known.

Ends

On a full hour (UTC). The closing snapshot is taken and the figures are final.

Result proposed

The winner is proposed from the snapshots. Anyone can check it during the the dispute window that follows.

Settled

The result is final. Winners claim their share from their portfolio, whenever they like.

A market runs for 1 to 3 whole days, and takes bets until 12 hours before its end. The dates on each market show when bets close and when it ends.

Every market compares one figure per trader over the market's run. There are three figures.

PnL

Profit and loss in US dollars, counting both trades the trader closed and the change in value of what they still hold.

• Realized PnL is profit on positions the trader sold during the market. It is read in consecutive 24-hour blocks and added up, so every hour of the market is counted once.
• Unrealized PnL is profit on positions still held, valued at the market price. Only its change counts: a bag bought long before the market opened adds or subtracts only what it gained or lost while the market ran.
• Money deposited into or withdrawn from a wallet is not profit. Only trading gains and losses count.
• Perpetuals count. For fomo traders, open and closed perpetual positions on Hyperliquid are part of PnL, as the fomo app shows them. A trader who makes $10,000 on memecoins and loses $30,000 on a leveraged BTC long is down $20,000.

Return (pump.fun traders)

The capital the trader had at work. A trader who held nothing and bought nothing has no return, and a market that needs one is voided. fomo's figures don't say what a trader bought, so return markets take pump.fun traders only.

Why our numbers differ from a profile page

A trader's fomo or pump.fun profile shows other things: the value of the whole portfolio, which moves with deposits and withdrawals, or PnL over the last 24 hours, 7 days or 30 days counted back from right now. A Kolshi market counts only its own run, from its start to its end. The opening and closing figures are on the market page, so you can always see where a number comes from.

Each trader is read from the platform they are listed on, shown by the fomo or pump badge next to their name.

fomo traders

fomo's own all-time PnL for the account, exactly as its leaderboard shows it: every wallet, closed trades and open positions, perps included. A market's PnL is how much that total moved between the start and the end. It is read from fomo's all-time leaderboard, which lists the top 100, so a fomo trader has to be on it to be in a market. One who drops off it before the end can't be read, and the market is voided.

pump.fun traders

Read from pump.fun's own portfolio figures for the trader's account, realized and unrealized, in US dollars.

Units

Everything is compared in US dollars. pump.fun also reports SOL, which can disagree in sign when SOL moves; dollars are the unit of record.

A trader with accounts on both platforms is a different entry on each. A market on frankdegods on fomo reads only fomo, even if he also trades on pump.fun.

PnL works for every trader. Return works for pump.fun traders, whose figures include what they bought; fomo's don't. A clash, fomo against pump, always compares PnL.

Every figure comes from snapshots we take automatically and keep. Nobody types a number in.

Opening snapshot

When the market opens: each trader's starting point, shown on the market page from the first minute.

Daily reads

Every 24 hours on the hour, from the start. For pump.fun traders each one is that day's PnL and buys. For fomo traders they track the figure as it goes; the result uses the opening and closing reads.

Closing snapshot

At the end: the last day for pump.fun traders, the final all-time PnL on fomo's leaderboard for fomo traders.

The market page shows each trader's figure at the open, how it stands after every daily read, and the final result, with the difference between them. Every snapshot is stored with the time it was taken and the source's answer exactly as received, so a result can be checked line by line.

Head to head

Two traders. The higher figure wins.

Battle royale

3 to 8 traders. The highest figure wins.

The line

One trader against a number, Over or Under. Over wins only if the figure is strictly above the line; exactly on the line goes to Under.

Clash

A fomo squad against a pump squad, 2 to 5 traders each. The side with the higher combined PnL wins.

Team markets

Set up by the Kolshi team, 2 to 16 outcomes. The question states exactly how it is decided.

Ties. If the top figures are equal to the cent (to 0.01% for return), the market can't pick a winner and is voided, with every bet refunded. In the line, a tie with the line goes to Under.

• After the closing snapshot, the resolver works out each figure from the snapshots and proposes the winner on-chain.
• The proposal stays open for the dispute window. If it is wrong, tell us before it ends and we will check it against the snapshots.
• A wrong proposal is rejected and a corrected one made, with a new the dispute window.
• Once the window passes, anyone can finalize the market and winners can claim.

A voided market refunds every bet in full, fee included. Voided markets never earn points. A market is voided when:

• A snapshot a trader's figure needs can't be taken within two hours of its time.
• A trader's account is deleted, renamed out of reach or turns out not to exist.
• The top figures tie to the cent, or to 0.01% for return.
• Nobody backed the winner, so there is nobody to pay.
• No result has been proposed 7 days after the end. Then anyone can void it on-chain, without us.

• A 3% fee is taken from each bet when it is placed; the rest goes into the pot. The fee is fixed per market when it opens and is refunded if the market is voided.
• The odds you see when you bet are not locked. Your payout is your share of the final pot.
• You can back more than one outcome in the same market. Each bet is its own stake.
• There is no minimum bet.

Where the fee goes

• For a market created by a user that reaches its minimum volume: 30% to the creator, paid in ETH.
• What remains: 80% buys back the Kolshi token and burns it, 20% goes to the platform.
• The token's own trading fees on Pons are split the same way: half buys back and burns, half goes to the platform.

Anyone can open a market from the four formats above, on any fomo or pump.fun trader.

• Creating a market locks a deposit in the Kolshi token. It comes back when the market settles with at least its minimum volume of bets.
• If the market settles below that volume, or nobody backed the winner, the deposit is burned.
• A market with a made-up or malformed trader is voided by the team and its deposit burned. The reason is written on-chain with it.
• If the team voids a market for any other reason, or nobody resolves it in time, the deposit comes back.
• Each creator can have a limited number of unsettled markets at a time.

The deposit, the minimum volume and the creator share are fixed for each market when it is created, and shown before you confirm.

Every bet earns points, win or lose, from the moment it is placed; bets on voided markets don't count, since they are refunded. Your rank climbs with the ETH you play, from Paper hands at 0.1 ETH to Legend at 10 ETH. See the ranks.

Network

Robinhood Chain

Markets contract

0x02e7911C91bF60a5C8ec91f5fd12157fD6559397

Fee splitter

0x4DFEd25c88802b6B6CEEf482a1dB15868D8b1Ae8

Where fees go

Creators take their share in the markets contract. The platform's share goes to the fee splitter with the token's Pons fees: 80% of the market fees and 50% of the Pons fees buy back the token and burn it, the rest goes to the team. Every buyback sends the tokens straight to the dead address.

Payouts

Pulled, never pushed: you claim winnings and refunds from your portfolio.

Settings

The team can change the fee, the deposit, the schedule and which formats are open. Every change applies to markets listed afterwards: a market keeps the terms it was created with until it settles.